GRE Argument高频题错误分析方法

在这个帖子当中我会不断的更新近期考的GRE Argument的题目和答题思路。尽管Argument题库很大，但是经常考的范围其实比较小，所以大家可以多关注一下。

The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station.

"WWAC must change from its current rock-music format because the number of listeners has been declining, even though the population in our listening area has been growing. The population growth has resulted mainly from people moving to our area after their retirement, and we must make listeners of these new residents. But they seem to have limited interest in music: several local stores selling recorded music have recently closed. Therefore, just changing to another kind of music is not going to increase our audience. Instead, we should adopt a news-and-talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

错误分析

• 听众减少跟摇滚乐可能没有直接的联系，是否有其他因素导致听众的减少？比如节日质量下降、节目时间的改变等等

• 卖recorded music的商店关闭不意味着当地人对音乐不感兴趣，人们可能有其他渠道购买音乐，比如人们可以利用在线的平台下载音乐

• News-and-talk的形式退休的人喜欢吗？尽管这种形式在当地越来越流行，但是不意味着听众主要是退休之后的人。所以切换成这种形式之后不一定能吸引想要吸引的人

The following appeared as part of an article in a business magazine.

"A recent study rating 300 male and female advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than six hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. On the basis of this study, we recommend that businesses hire only people who need less than six hours of sleep per night."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

错误分析

• 近期的调查不一定客观：比如调查样本的选取可能不是随机的，对于被调查者睡眠时间的统计可能不够科学、调查持续的时间不够长等等

• 广告公司的成功不一定是因为领导层睡眠少导致的，可能是因为竞争不激烈、老板有良好的人脉、公司的设计师水平很高、价格低廉等等

• 即使广告行业确实是适用的，其他行业不一定同样适用，有些行业如果人们过于疲劳的话可能会出安全事故。再说，文中也没有说people指的是谁。调查是针对管理层的调查，而最终结论却扩大到了people，这本身就有过渡推断之嫌。

Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise in the town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful: Nature's Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly Plainsville is such an area. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. Finally, Plainsville's schoolchildren represent a new generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

错误分析

• 原文的逻辑是P镇运动服饰销量高，所以P镇居民生活更健康，因此他们也会对NW的健康食品感兴趣。但是运动服饰的销量是商家报告的，所以不一定准确。即使准确，销量高可能其他原因造成的，比如运动服便宜、其他地方网购消费者增多、或是旅游业带动等等。即使运动服饰确实本地销量很多，也不一定说明当地居民对NW健康食品感兴趣，因此还需要提供具体的市场调查等证据来证明。再者，不能假定这种高销量的趋势会持续下去，因为人们的喜好可能会发生转变。

• 健身俱乐部的会员数并不能预示NW将在Plainesville“非常成功”。例如，俱乐部虽然会员多，但是人们之所以加入俱乐部可能与健康无关，而只是想要找一个社交场所。也有可能很多会员只是一时冲动加入，并不会定期运动。另外，原文中也从未提及俱乐部会员以及各种课程学生的具体数目。即使俱乐部的会员们会光顾NW的商店，这些会员们在数量上也可能并不足以保证商店盈利。

• 原文假设在Plainesville的学校中开设的一个强制性的健康计划预示着NW的商店将会非常成功，因为小时候参加这样的计划长大后可能更有健康意识。首先，我们无法确定这样的计划对于参与者的习惯的影响力有多大；很多人从小只是被迫参与，一旦失去了外力强迫，可能立刻就会放弃。其次，即使有部分人长大后确实很重视健康，他们不一定有足够的钱去买健康食品。

• 不能假定没有其他的竞品。一旦文章中的预测是合理的，其他的竞争者可能也想占领当地的时长，从而导致竞争越来越激烈，这会影响利润，所以不一定意味着P这个地方开店就能赚很多钱。

The following is a recommendation from the city manager of Bridge Bay.

"Last year, the number of visits to our local beach in Bridge Bay was 50 percent lower than the year before. Early last year we ended our contract with Arko Trash Collection, a company that had serviced local garbage collection for the past twenty years. We switched at that time to Satellite Waste Corporation, another trash collection company. In nearby Ocean Harbor, where Arko has continued to provide garbage collection, the beaches are experiencing record levels of attendance. Meanwhile, in Bridge Bay, complaints about garbage on our beach have increased this year. Clearly, inadequate garbage collection on our beach by Satellite has led to the significant drop in visitors. Therefore, in order to restore visitor numbers to our local beach, we recommend resuming our contract with Arko as soon as possible."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

错误分析

• Bridge Bay游客的减少不一定是换收垃圾的公司导致的。可能有其他因素发生了改变导致的减少，比如Bridge Bay海水质量变差、或者出现了安全事故、也可能是其他设施变差了、或者涨价了等等

• Ocean Harbor人数创纪录也不一定是因为使用了Arko清理垃圾。可能是当地人口增多了、或者是天气变热了大家都想去海边、也可能是OH有什么吸引人的活动等等

• Bridge Bay关于垃圾的抱怨的增多了并不意味着S公司的服务不行。可能是Bridge Bay人少了之后，游客扔垃圾毫无顾忌，因为被看见的可能性变小了。这直接导致了垃圾的增多。尽管S公司服务没有变，也会导致抱怨增多。而且没有证据表明换回A可以解决问题。万一A觉得自己被换掉了感到很不爽，而不好好提供服务呢？

这个题官网的Argument Pool里面没有

According to a new report from the federal government, overall donations of money to nonprofit groups increased last year. Most notably, donations to international aid groups increased by 30 percent, followed by donations to environmental groups, which increased by 23 percent. In contrast, donations to educational institutions did not fare so well, actually decreasing by 3 percent. All the major economic indicators suggest that consumer spending is higher than average this year. In particular, spending has risen considerably for luxury items, such as high-end automobiles, electronics, and fashion, showing that potential donors have ample disposable income. Therefore, the clearest explanation for the decline in donations to educational institutions is that people actually value education less than they did in the past.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

• 尽管国际援助小组和环境小组的捐助上涨的百分比比较多，但是很可能是因为之前的数字太小。反过来，虽然教育机构的捐助少了3%，但是由于之前的基数比较大，教育经费依然不少，所以不能推出人们不重视教育，可能只是因为人们觉得之前捐助的已经够多了。

• 潜在的捐款人都应该是特别有钱的人，而超有钱的人不一定经常买奢侈品，反而是那些没有什么钱的年轻人喜欢刷信用卡买，所以奢侈品消费的增加无法证明潜在的捐助者有更多的钱可以捐。

• 对于教育的重视体现在其他很多方面，不光是体现在捐款的数量。比如，现在的父母可能更愿意在子女的教育上投入，或者更愿意多花时间教孩子知识等等。

In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidents has not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding the speed limit. Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

• 去年才采取限速的政策今年就下结论说这个努力失败了未免有些仓促。为了得到更加客观的结论应该多一些时间收集更多的证据。另外，交通事故没有减少不意味着限速没有用，可能交通事故的原因中超速的比例已经降低了，或者不降低限速的话可能事故会更多。再者，尽管高速巡警依然报告司机超速，但是可能总体人数是减少了的，毕竟巡警的报告只是基于主观感觉，而不一定足够客观。

• Butler County今年报告的事故比五年前少了不一定是给定的三个措施导致的。有可能现在Bulter County的司机不愿意报告交通事故，反而更喜欢自己私下解决。或者也有可能当地车辆减少了、监控变多了、甚至对司机的要求更高了等等原因所致，不一定是因为路宽了、重新铺了高速、或者能见度高了

• 即使Butler County确实通过增加路的宽度、重铺高速、或者改善能见度减少了事故，不一定意味着Prunty也可以通过同样的措施达到类似的目的。有可能Prunty路况以及能见度本身就很好了，即使花钱再去改善也不会有帮助。

The following appeared in a letter to the city council of Canbury from the president of Plexma Motors.

"I am pleased that the council is considering Plexma's plans to open a new manufacturing site in Canbury next year. In addition to our regular line of cars, Plexma has also begun designing and testing a line of automated self-driving vehicles. In a recent survey conducted by local media, 60 percent of Canbury's residents reported that they would purchase a Plexma self-driving vehicle in the future if they were confident in the vehicles' safety. We are happy to report that last summer, we tested our new line of self-driving vehicles in downtown Canbury with great success. Not only did our five tested vehicles remain accident-free for two months during testing, but in a survey conducted after testing, 90 percent of Canbury's residents reported that when they were downtown and our vehicles were in operation they felt very safe. Because steady demand for our self-driving vehicles will create new jobs and thereby greatly benefit Canbury's economy as a whole, I recommend that you vote to allow Plexma to begin manufacturing and selling these vehicles in Canbury."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

• 所谓的近期的调查是否足够科学？样本是随机选取的吗？有代表性吗？调查过程中受访者有没有受到误导从而把Plexma的自动驾驶汽车想的过于理想化。另外，调查中说“in the future”到底是什么时候？如果是20年之后，现在也没有必要允许Plexma进来。

• 去年只测试了五辆车、而且是两个月内没有事故根本不能说明问题。大范围、长期使用之后可靠性如何？是否会事故量急剧上升？

• 测试之后，90%的居民在市里看到自动驾驶车感到安全是不是因为少所以才觉得安全。一旦推广开之后，很多自动驾驶车跑在路上他们还会觉得安全吗？

• 万一对于自动驾驶汽车的需求没有那么大和稳定，那么Plexma对于当地就业的贡献就会很小，而且当地人能干得了Plexma提供的工作吗？有没有可能Plexma还得从外地带人过来，那么对于就业的贡献就更小了。至于对于当地经济的贡献也可能是负面的。一旦Plexma陷入困境，可能政府还得出钱或者其他资源帮助它，这反而会增加当地政府的经济负担。

The following appeared in a letter from a homeowner to a friend.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town — Adams Realty and Fitch Realty — Adams Realty is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents; in contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago I listed my home with Fitch, and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams Realty."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

• 不能假定中介人员越多，公司就越好，可能大部分服务意识很差、专业知识不足；也不能假定兼职员工就不好，可能兼职员工都是能力很强的人，所以只能以兼职的形式雇到他们；另外，如果他们还有别的收入来源，可能就不会在帮助客户的过程中特别看重利益。

• 收入高不能代表公司的实力，可能高收入是通过大规模投放广告换回来的，或者只是因为运气好卖了几套单价很高的房子搞上去的。

• 不能假定十年间Fitch的买房速度没有提高，可能同样的房子现在给到Fitch需要比Adams更短的时间就能卖出去。而且，卖房所需时间的差异可能是不同的市场环境或者房子的质量和价格差异导致的。